Q1 Recap Lincoln District 2026

Hello, my people! Now that Q1 of 2026 is officially in the books, I wanted to share some insight into what’s happening in the Tacoma real estate market, specifically right here in the Lincoln District.

You might wonder, “Jordan, why focus only on Lincoln and not all of Tacoma?” It’s a fair question! I believe Lincoln is a fantastic “litmus test” for Tacoma. Because of its affordability, central location, and iconic craftsman style, when Lincoln is busy, the rest of the city usually follows. Plus, with our mix of long-term neighbors, flips, and rentals, we get a perfect cross-section of the market. (And because I live here, I love it here, and I think more people should consider making Lincoln their home!)

The Numbers: Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2026

To understand the market, I track three main data points: Median Price, Days on Market, and Sales Volume. Here is how the start of this year compared to last:

Median Sales Price: $421,500 (Down slightly from $424,950 in 2025).
Average Days on Market: 15 Days (Up from 10 days last year).
Total Sales: 64 (Down from 75 last year).

The Big Takeaway: On paper, activity has slowed down slightly. But here is the kicker: In Q1 of 2025, the average interest rate was 7.14%. This year, it dropped to 6.3%. Usually, a full point drop in rates sends the market into a frenzy, but instead, we are seeing a remarkably stable market very similar to 2025 when rates were much higher.

What This Means for Sellers

I know “stagnation” sounds like a dirty word, but in this context, it’s actually a sign of strength.

Even with fewer homes selling and a slight increase in time on the market, prices didn’t drop. This proves that Lincoln’s value is resilient. As affordability improves with lower rates, more buyers are stepping back into the search.

The Strategy: The days of “list it in any condition and get 10 offers” are over. To hit that top-dollar mark in 2026, you need a strategy. Success today requires great presentation, expert staging, and a surgical pricing strategy. With the right guidance, Lincoln is still a fantastic place to sell.

What This Means for Buyers

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, 2026 is handing you two major wins:

Increased Buying Power: That interest rate drop is huge. Buying a $450,000 home today costs you roughly $400–$500 less per month than it would have a year ago. That’s essentially a free “raise” for your housing budget.
Room to Breathe: Last year, you had to decide on a house in 10 days. This year, you have an average of 15. That extra time allows you to properly vet a property and avoid having buyer’s remorse.

Lincoln’s steady prices tell me this neighborhood has incredible long-term value. You aren’t just buying a house; you’re buying into a community with staying power.

The Bottom Line

Whether you’re looking to move into the neighborhood or you’re ready to level up to your next home, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of opportunity.

If you want to dive deeper into the weeds (like absorption rates or list-to-sale ratios), I’m your guy. I’ve got my boots on the ground here in Lincoln every day, and I’m always happy to help my neighbors navigate this market and introduce new folks to Lincoln!

Enjoy this beautiful spring weather, and feel free to reach out with any questions!

-Jordan

Phone: (253) 882-7974

Email: jordancain@windermere.com

Instagram: @jcainhomes